Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210426

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 17 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 Phase 4 with a first reac­tion off W1 QLo the week pri­or last week which closed lower

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 DBD clos­ing with­in D1-C‑D 1.92900 trad­ing above D1 QLo
    • After a D1 QHi rejec­tion price tra­versed down to QLo and formed a Bull Engulf just above D1 QLo
  • H4 Bear Engulf at H4 VWAP in DT (giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.93080 althoughlow in the dis­tri­b­u­tion curve) with slight con­tin­u­a­tion down through DBD clos­ing with­in H4 QLo
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Even though val­ue are in DT there val­ue edges are slight­ly over­lap­ping hence there could be a slow-down in the move
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1370
  • ASR: 1003
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93600
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92700

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.93470 above VAH with­in range at H4 VWAP in DT
  • D1-C‑D 1.92900 below VAL with­in range just above H4 QLo
  • H4-C‑D 1.92278 at ADR 0.5 low
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bull Engulf reject­ing H4 QLo
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Although due to near-prox­im­i­ty to Val­ue edge we can see an accep­tance of val­ue. How­ev­er, with a new­ly formed H4 sup­ply (although pos­si­ble low in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve) through Bear Engulf at H4 VWAP in DT this can be con­sid­ered risky. Safer would be a move down even though a H4 bull engulf was formed pre­mar­ket pos­si­ble reject­ing H4 QLo.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 bull engulf reject­ing H4 QLo premarket
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick rota­tion, per­haps a failed auc­tion after H4 2nd chance entry
  • Con: H4 c‑sup at VAL
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 c‑sup at VAL
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA pos­si­bly fail­ing auc­tion oth­er­wise an exten­sion down with sus­tained auction
  • Con: Trad­ing right into D1 demand and new­ly formed H4 c‑dem
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: wedged between sup­ply and demand

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.93470
• H4-C‑S 1.93080

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.92900
• H4-C‑D 1.92782
• H4-C‑D 1.92278

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay although slept a lit­tle less than normal

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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