Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210423

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 16 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing below last week’s body (with­in range) with one more day to go

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Inside Down at D1 VWAP CAR and then closed neu­tral with an equal­ly long-wicked spin­ning top with reac­tion off D1-C‑D 1.92921 (which has been test mul­ti­ple times) coin­cid­ing with D1 200MA but price is still mid D1 swing
  • H4 price fal­ter­ing but no clear-cut rever­sal (yet) at D1-C‑D 1.92921 although price has reached H4 QLo and react­ed slight­ly with­out a con­tin­u­a­tion (yet)
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed trend after an Uptrend has hit a larg­er time frame supply
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Even though slight­ly in DT we have now 3 val­ues over­lap­ping in a some­what of a flim­sy bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1335
  • ASR: 1003
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93925
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92578

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.93474 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price trad­ed high­er from D1 demand to VAL so there could be an accep­tance of val­ue, although with H4 c‑sup right there this doesn’t make for the best oppor­tu­ni­ty either. Per­haps a return to val­ue play could be good. D1 demand test­ed mul­ti­ple times. Val­ue show­ing a slow­down in move but D1 could go either way. W1 trad­ing down at W1 200MA could see more reac­tion oth­er­wise a con­tin­u­a­tion down could be possible. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 demand test­ed mul­ti­ple times, Open sen­ti­ment, H4 c‑sup at VAL
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish PA, pos­si­ble failed auc­tion after a quick test of val­ue then extend­ing below form­ing a Neu­tral Day
  • Con: D1 demand below. 
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, D1 demand
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: H4 c‑sup right there at VAL
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.94297
• H4-C‑S 1.93474

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.93717
• D1-C‑D 1.92921

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay. Slept very long but nonethe­less will take it easy today. Sleep­ing long after mul­ti­ple days of sleep­ing too lit­tle doesn’t make up for it at once. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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