23 Apr Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210423
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Only trade the main account
- Be mindful of DTTZs
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price is trading below last week’s body (within range) with one more day to go
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 Three Inside Down at D1 VWAP CAR and then closed neutral with an equally long-wicked spinning top with reaction off D1-C‑D 1.92921 (which has been test multiple times) coinciding with D1 200MA but price is still mid D1 swing
- H4 price faltering but no clear-cut reversal (yet) at D1-C‑D 1.92921 although price has reached H4 QLo and reacted slightly without a continuation (yet)
- Possible H4 Phase 1
- Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Mixed trend after an Uptrend has hit a larger time frame supply
- Market Profile
- Even though slightly in DT we have now 3 values overlapping in a somewhat of a flimsy bracket
- Daily Range
- ADR: 1335
- ASR: 1003
- 25
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1.93925
- Yesterday’s Low 1.92578
Sentiment
- Locations
- H4-C‑D 1.93474 at VAL
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Below Value, Within Range
- Open distance to value
- 0.3xASR
- Premarket
- Narrative
- Moderate Imbalance. Price traded higher from D1 demand to VAL so there could be an acceptance of value, although with H4 c‑sup right there this doesn’t make for the best opportunity either. Perhaps a return to value play could be good. D1 demand tested multiple times. Value showing a slowdown in move but D1 could go either way. W1 trading down at W1 200MA could see more reaction otherwise a continuation down could be possible.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 3
- Hypo 1 — Return to Value
- Narrative: D1 demand tested multiple times, Open sentiment, H4 c‑sup at VAL
- Preferred: Strong bearish PA, possible failed auction after a quick test of value then extending below forming a Neutral Day
- Con: D1 demand below.
- Hypo 2 — Value Acceptance
- Narrative: Open sentiment, D1 demand
- Preferred: Early acceptance and quick follow-through
- Con: H4 c‑sup right there at VAL
- Hypo 3 — Responsive Activity
Additional notes
- Capital Preservation Rule in effect
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- D1-C‑S 1.94297
- H4-C‑S 1.93474
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1.93717
- D1-C‑D 1.92921
Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)
- Feeling okay. Slept very long but nonetheless will take it easy today. Sleeping long after multiple days of sleeping too little doesn’t make up for it at once.
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Only trade the main account
- Be mindful of DTTZs
- Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
- M15/M30 combination at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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