Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210421

21 Apr Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210421

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 16 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing at last week’s body low, pos­si­ble base in the mak­ing although still have a few days left

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price is trad­ing below the Inside Bar with long buy­ing wick cre­at­ed after react­ing off D1 sup­ply giv­ing an as of yet uncon­firmed D1-C‑S 1.94297 (would need one more day to confirm)
  • H4 Bull Engulf formed at H4-C‑D 1.93717 with no con­tin­u­a­tion high­er instead a mean­der­ing back down
• Trend: H4 up, D1 down, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 slight­ly over­lap­ping val­ues after a UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1282
  • ASR: 1007
    • 26
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94745
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.93524

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.93717 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Slight break down from H4 con­sol­i­da­tion not a strong fin­ish­er at all
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Although due to the val­ue accep­tance dur­ing IB there might be a rota­tion down. A big con is H4 demand at VAL coin­cid­ing with H4 VWAP. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and slight move down on H4 after ear­li­er H4 QHi was rejected
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick fol­low-through, mon­i­tor for a pos­si­ble break below val­ue tak­ing out demand 
  • Con: H4 demand at VAL
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 demand at VAL, D1 Inside Bar with long buy­ing wick
  • Pre­ferred: 
  • Con: Trad­ing into supply
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.94900
• D1-C‑S 1.94297 Unconfirmed

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.93717
• D1-C‑D 1.92921

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Again didn’t sleep the best so the focus is not on tak­ing trades unless some­thing real­ly jumps out. Oth­er­wise I will just sit and observe.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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