Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210420

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 16 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in last week’s body after an ini­tial reac­tion off W1 QLo last week
  • Moved to below last week’s body in premarket

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf and first retest of D1-C‑D 1.92921 (coin­cid­ing with D1 200MA) and con­se­quent move high­er (leav­ing a buy­ing wick) return­ing to D1-C‑S 1.94900 (coin­cid­ing with D1 VWAP CAR) with ini­tial reaction
  • H4 VWAP in DT BO CAS through large bull engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.93717 and con­se­quent con­sol­i­da­tion and break down at H4 QHi (coin­cid­ing with H4 UKC in DT CAR at H4 200MA) 
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Yes­ter­day val­ue was cre­at­ed above the 2 over­lap­ping pre­ced­ing val­ues with a wide­ness of more than 75% of ASR
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1359
  • ASR: 1014
    • 26
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.95015
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92830

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.94900 below ADR 0.5 high and exhaustion
  • H4-C‑D 1.93717 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Con­tin­u­a­tion down
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance with A clos­ing slight with­in Val­ue. H4 con­tin­u­a­tion down reach­ing H4 demand with under­ly­ing VWAP there might be cause for a bounce. If val­ue is tru­ly accept­ed price could see a rota­tion to D1 demand.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 con­tin­u­a­tion down
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly Accep­tance and quick rota­tion down tak­ing out ADR exhaus­tion and con­tin­u­ing to D1 demand at VAL
  • Con: Trad­ing right into H4 demand, ADR exhaus­tion and H4 VWAP in the way
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 narrative 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion Up
  • Con: IB exten­sion down

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.94900

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.93717
• D1-C‑D 1.92921
• H4-C‑D 1.92290

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay although didn’t sleep too well

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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