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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Only trade the main account
- Be mindful of DTTZs
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- W1 50MA in DT BO to possibly CAS, no W1 reversal pattern (yet)
- W1 demand got taken out last week
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 50MA in UT BD to CAR after Bull Engulf above D1 QLo, LKC in UT and D1 200MA
- H4 Bull Engulf giving H4-C‑D 1.92290 with follow-through (breaking above H4 Qlo) to H4 VWAP in DT trading slightly above to H4 50MA in DT trading mid H4 swing
- Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Mixed trend after an uptrend hitting a HTF supply and reversing
- Market Profile
- 2‑day overlapping values
- Daily Range
- ADR: 1245
- ASR: 911
- 23
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1.93810
- Yesterday’s Low 1.91730
Sentiment
- Locations
- H4 200MA and D1-C‑S 1.94900 at H4 QHi
- D1-C‑D 1.92921 at H4 QLo and above VAH
- H4-C‑D 1.92290 above D1 QLo
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Above Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- 1.2xASR
- Premarket
- H4 closed as a doji with longer selling wick. Possible DBD in the making.
- Narrative
- Large imbalance at the open after a M30 VWAP in UT BD. Not far above D1 c‑dem so shorts can be tricky.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 3
- Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
- Narrative: Large imbalance at the open, possible H4 DBD in the making
- Preferred: Momentum extension down, sustained auction to Value edge
- Con: D1 demand right below at M30 LKC in UT coinciding with M30 QLo, plus price is mid M30/H4 swing
- Hypo 2 — Return to Value
- Narrative: D1 c‑dem at VAH, M30/H4 QLo
- Preferred: Extension down, bullish PA reversal to failed auction, possibly forming a neutral day
- Con: Large imbalance at the open
Additional notes
- Capital Preservation Rule in effect
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- D1-C‑S 1.94900
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 1.92921
- H4-C‑D 1.92290
Mindful Trading
- Feeling jumpy, didn’t sleep well. Gonna sit today out in terms of trading but will observe and take notes.
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Only trade the main account
- Be mindful of DTTZs
- Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
- M15/M30 combination at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING