Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210414

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 15 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing below last week’s W1 Three Out­side Down for­ma­tion after a pullback

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Pull­back to D1 VWAP in UT to CAR revers­ing through Bear­ish Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick, con­tin­u­a­tion low­er tak­ing out D1-C‑D 1.94900 arriv­ing at D1 50MA in UT above W1-C‑D 1.93978
  • H4-C‑S 1.95782 formed through bear engulf at D1-C‑S 1.95934 BASE  (although coin­cid­ing with D1 VWAp in UT to CAR) and H4 Phase 4 with some reac­tion at H4 200MA in UT (test­ed mul­ti­ple times before) and clos­ing below near­ing H4 QHi. 
  • Lon­don and NY both trad­ed down yesterday
• Trend: H4 down, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although price reached a larg­er time­frame sup­ply area
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1008
  • ASR: 837
    • 21
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96024
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94710

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.95782 at VAH
  • ADR exhaus­tion right below open at H4 QLo and W1 demand
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Slight con­tin­u­a­tion on H4
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Although a large imbal­ance at the open there is no basis for a rever­sal pat­tern on the H4 and price has not yet touched H4 QLo. Even so there might be a mean rever­sion but hav­ing those fac­tors ful­filled first would be pre­ferred. Due to pos­si­ble D1 phase 4 there might be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move and the open sen­ti­ment could be a sign of strength behind the move. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Large Imbal­ance, near­by H4 QLo, D1 50MA in UT
  • Pre­ferred: move touch­ing H4 QLo dur­ing IB, strong bull­ish price action with IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auction
  • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 4
• Hypo 2 — Respon­sive Activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: medi­um time­frame speedblock
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 con­tin­u­a­tion in D1 phase 4 narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action, IB exten­sion down reach­ing for D1 demand, exhaust­ing ADR
  • Con: W1 demand below
• Hypo 4 — Vari­a­tion to Hypo 3
  • Price action and order­flow rever­sal at W1/D1 demand

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.95782

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96978
• D1-C‑D 1.93581

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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