Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210409

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 14 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Went yes­ter­day but no cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Pos­si­ble W1 Three Out­side Down (after react­ing off MN-C‑S 1.97316) in the mak­ing return­ing to W1-C‑D 1.93978 
• Still have today’s close

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 DBD giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.95933 BASE at D1 VWAP in UT with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below
  • Mid D1 Swing, H4 swing activated
  • Price near­ing H4 QLo and W1-C‑D 1.93978, some reac­tion already coin­cid­ing with H4 200MA in UT form­ing a Bull Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.94689
• Trend: H4 down, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although hav­ing react­ed off larg­er time­frame sup­ply already the trend might be turning
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue in DT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1203
  • ASR: 811
    • 21
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96130
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94453

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.95933 BASE above VAH and range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Spin­ning Top with longer sell­ing wick, pos­si­ble Base as price already test­ed (2nd chance entry style) of new H4 c‑dem. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Due to get­ting clos­er to W1 demand a H4 bull engulf was formed. Although due to the mod­er­ate large imbal­ance at the open and H4 spin­ning top formed pre­mar­ket it could go either way. Pos­si­ble H4 Evening Star as price hasn’t touched H4 QLo or W1 demand. Or a H4 RBR as pos­si­bly new demand is being formed around these lev­els and price could go test D1 VWAP in UT for a CAR
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble D1 phase 4 (bear­ish marubozu), H4 Evening Star, price not test­ed QLo
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish Price action, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF demand clos­ing with­in H4 demand. 
  • Con: New­ly formed H4 demand
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 RBR, D1 VWAP in UT BD to CAR
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish Price action tak­ing out LTF sup­ply and clos­ing con­fi­dent­ly with­in value
  • Con: D1 bear­ish sen­ti­ment (bear­ish marubozu), lots of LTF sup­plies, val­ue tight
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activ­i­ty / Fri­day Profit-taking
  • Nar­ra­tive: per­haps some prof­it tak­ing going on where price kin­da moves in a direc­tion but not too con­fi­dent­ly as not to scare off buyers/sellers

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.96852
• D1-C‑S 1.95933 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.94689
• W1-C‑D 1.96978

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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