Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210408

08 Apr Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210408

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 14 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Went yes­ter­day but no cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing below last week’s Inside Bar — pos­si­ble W1 Three Out­side Down in the making

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Phase 3 at D1 QHi took out demand with yes­ter­day clos­ing as a long-legged doji (longer sell­ing wick with high test­ing new­ly formed D1-C‑S 1.96852) at D1 VWAP in DT (pos­si­ble BD)
  • H4 Bull Engulf (as part of the retest of D1 C‑sup) and con­se­quent consolidation
  • Price trad­ing below H4 VWAP in DT
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although trad­ing at larg­er time­frame supply
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the previous
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1088
  • ASR: 831
    • 21
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96640
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95384

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.96852 Above VAH with val­ue rid­dled with LTF supplies
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 break down from con­sol­i­da­tion still trad­ing with­in demand. Although with D1 pos­si­bly form­ing a DBD price could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. LTF mov­ing low­er from VAL. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • 4
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble D1 DBD, H4 break down from consolidation
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish Price action, 2nd chance entry per­haps, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auction
  • Con: Trad­ing with­in new­ly formed H4 demand but per­haps weak
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble D1 Morn­ing Star, D1 VWAP in UT
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly Accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: Tight val­ue area rid­dled with LTF supplies

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.96852

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96978

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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