Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210407

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 14 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below the Neu­tral Inside Bar mak­ing a LL

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price took out D1-C‑D 1.96720 through Big Bear Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.96852 return­ing to D1 UKC in UT / D1 VWAP in UT
  • Mid D1 swing
  • H4 Bear Engulf with con­tin­u­a­tion and long-legged doji below H4 LKC in R cre­at­ing some demand (VWAP in R too)
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend although hav­ing reached an oppos­ing MN sup­ply zone
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ue with 3rd cre­at­ed above, although price is trad­ing way below
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1078
  • ASR: 832
    • 21
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97503
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95619

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.96852 at VAL, LTF supply
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.5xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bear Engulf formed with an imme­di­ate retrace­ment and tak­ing out of supply
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. Look­ing at a pos­si­ble mean rever­sion. With D1 c‑sup at VAL there could be a nice Return to Val­ue oppor­tu­ni­ty as well. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Large Imbal­ance at the open, IB range wide but not too wide. Retraced all of H4 bear Engulf and took out supply. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish Price action, IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion to VAL
  • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 C‑sup at VAL, pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish rever­sal pat­tern at VAL, pos­si­ble TPO struc­ture build up or failed auction
  • Con: Pos­si­ble more upside on W1

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.96852

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96978

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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