Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210329

29 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210329

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 13 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing deep with­in W1 sup­ply, near­ing W1 Sup­ply End 1.98047
• Cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 con­sol­i­da­tion high with­in D1 QHi (wide)
  • Pos­si­ble H4 phase 3 or slow-down. New demand cre­at­ed just below MN-C‑S 1.97300 giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.97183
• Pre­mar­ket
  • Closed as a H4 RBR clos­ing below H4 supply
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: trend is up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the previous
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1269
  • ASR: 875
    • 220
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97512
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96836

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.97183 with­in value
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price has arrived at larg­er time­frame sup­ply how­ev­er medi­um time­frame plus open sen­ti­ment show a poten­tial for a lit­tle more upside before con­sid­er­ing a rever­sal. W1 sup­ply is still intact although price is near­ing the end. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, medi­um time­frame narrative 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up with a sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF sup­ply (coin­cid­ing with tak­ing out M30 Q point). Mon­i­tor for a take out of W1 Sup­ply End 1.98047
  • Con: Bear­ish Inside Bar on D1
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open Sen­ti­ment, arrival at larg­er time­frame supply
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly bear­ish price action accept­ing val­ue, quick follow-through
  • Con: new H4 demand with­in val­ue (although pos­si­bly too high on dis­tri­b­u­tion curve), not much prof­it target.
• Hypo 3 — Vari­a­tion to 1
  • Fail­ure to take out W1 sup­ply, TPO struc­ture build and price action con­firm­ing a reversal.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect
• End of the month

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97300
• D1-C‑S 1.96738
• MN-C‑S 1.95708 BASE (coin­cides with W1-C‑S 1.95321)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.97183
• D1-C‑D 1.96432 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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