Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210325

25 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210325

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 12 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price arrived at MN-C‑S 1.95708 BASE almost at MN-C‑S 1.97300
• Price arrived at W1-C‑S 1.95321 and trad­ing within

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed as a spin­ning top (neu­tral) after react­ing off D1-C‑S 1.96738
  • H4 show­ing signs of price slow­ing down and is trad­ing between new­ly devel­oped sup­ply and demand.
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 trad­ed down and closed as an Invert­ed Hammer
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up so longs are more favored.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed on top of pre­vi­ous value
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1354
  • ASR: 883
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96955
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low  1.95888

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.96738 above val­ue, with­in range, with­in M30QHi
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Price had a ral­ly fol­lowed by slow­ing down at D1 C‑sup lev­el as shown through H4 price action. With an open inside val­ue price could con­tin­ue bal­anc­ing before pick­ing a direc­tion. H4 base lev­el below VAL could get hit with a val­ue rejec­tion down which could indi­cate more down­side. Trend is up though so longs are more favored although some sup­ply has been formed.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 price slow down, open inside value
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels.
  • Con: Trend is up
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Trend is up, larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action coin­cid­ing with IB break above VAH, sus­tained auc­tion, although might see a failed auc­tion due to over­head supply. 
  • Con: hit D1 supply
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Poten­tial D1 Three Out­side Down at D1 C‑sup
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action coin­cid­ing with IB break below VAL, sus­tained auc­tion hit­ting H4 base demand level. 
  • Con: Trend is up, larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97300
• D1-C‑S 1.96738
• MN-C‑S 1.95708 BASE (coin­cides with W1-C‑S 1.95321)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95620 BASE
• D1-C‑D 1.93561

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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