Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210317

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 11 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 ham­mer (although a slight sell­ing wick present) after react­ing off D1 VWAP in UT
  • H4 Bull Engulf after react­ing off H4-C-D1.92362 with con­tin­u­a­tion high­er return­ing to H4-C‑S 1.93372 with some reac­tion although still trad­ing high­er cur­rent­ly test­ing H4 VWAP.
  • Pre­mar­ket: Took out H4-C‑S 1.93372 trad­ing higher
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT
  • ADR: 1162
  • ASR: 899
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93324
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92330

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.92964 with­in H4 QHi
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.9xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. Open sen­ti­ment might war­rant a mean rever­sion after H4 has trad­ed much high­er. Price trad­ing with­in H4 QHi could war­rant this as well with trend being down. Although larg­er time­frame is still bull­ish until we have a sig­nif­i­cant close show­ing the opposite. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Rever­sion / Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, price with­in H4/M30 QHi,
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion. Low/medium ini­tia­tive per­haps due to lots of LTF demands.
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame still bullish 
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auction
  • Con: Sup­ply overhead

Addi­tion­al notes

• FOMC lat­er today. Extra cau­tion is advised. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.93372
• D1-C‑S 1.92964

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.93208 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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