Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210310

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 10 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Still trad­ing above last week’s close and made a new high
• W1 QLo rejection

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed as an Inside Bar with long sell­ing wick with­in D1 sup­ply (still intact)
  • H4 Phase 3 although due to larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment this could be a redistribution
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 Bull Engulf at H4 C‑dem with no imme­di­ate fol­low-through instead an Inside Bar
• Trend: H4 UP, D1 DOWN, W1 DOWN
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Wider val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous value
  • ADR: 1470
  • ASR: 1217
    • 31
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94517
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.93316

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.94100 above VAH with­in range at M30 QHi at ADR 0.5 High
  • H4-C‑D 1.93783 with­in value
  • LTF demand at VAL with­in M30 QLo
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. With sev­er­al rejec­tions of sup­ply with­out fol­low-through down and larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment the sen­ti­ment is still over­all slight­ly bull­ish. Pre­mar­ket H4 closed as an Inside Bar that could go either way so will let mar­ket pro­file guide the way. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open with­in val­ue, pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 bull engulf fol­lowed by an inside bar that could poten­tial­ly be a base in line with larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Plus price opened below VAH.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly con­fi­dent close above VAH coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion up, tak­ing out LTF sup­ply, sus­tained auc­tion up.
  • Con: H4 sup­ply (although test­ed many times)

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94100 (old)
• D1-C‑S 1.92964

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.93783
• H4-C‑D 1.92350

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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