Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210305

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 9 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body above W1 QLo with a buy­ing wick although no close yet. Today is the last day. 

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ed high­er and closed above D1 200MA deep­er into over­head sup­ply (that has been test­ed many times)
  • H4 Phase 2 reach­ing old sup­ply H4-C‑S 1.94100
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed slight­ly high­er with longer buy­ing wick
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed on top of the 2 day over­lap­ping values
  • ADR: 1563
  • ASR: 1173
    • 30
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.1.93597
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91792

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. Although with D1 clos­ing what looks like con­fi­dent­ly above D1 200MA (thus might move on momen­tum) and into over­head sup­ply we might final­ly have that break out in line with larg­er time frame sen­ti­ment. Although the open sen­ti­ment may sug­gest a mean rever­sion first. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and uni­di­rec­tion­al day yes­ter­day with today being Fri­day we might see some profit-taking. 
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish Price action, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion till val­ue edge.
  • Con: No H4 demands in the way although LTF con­ges­tion might prove troublesome.
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Might have momen­tum behind the upwards move that closed into sup­ply and above D1 200MA.
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action with IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) and sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Due to still trad­ing with­in sup­ply we might see a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day. Non-farm lat­er today. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Non-farm lat­er today

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94100 (old)
• D1-C‑S 1.92964

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.91540
• MN-C‑D 1.89719

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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