Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210303

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 9 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body above W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ed low­er react­ing off D1 QHi clos­ing with­in W1 QLo leav­ing a long sell­ing wick. Pos­si­ble Phase 1 / 3.
  • Dur­ing NY there was a gap up that got smacked down hard. Not sure why. 
  • H4 Bear­ish Inside Bar at D1 QHi with some fol­low-through trad­ing with­in H4-C‑D 1.91540 with­in then a Bull Engulf clos­ing slight­ly above. Pos­si­ble Phase 1 / 3.
  • Pre­mar­ket: Con­tin­u­a­tion to the H4 Bull Engulf with long buy­ing wick
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous day’s value
  • ADR: 1576
  • ASR: 1161
    • 30
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.92465
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91170

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.91540 with­in val­ue below PPOC
  • H4-C‑S 1.91955 at VAH with ADR 0.5 High above
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Due to open with­in sen­ti­ment we can assume a bal­anc­ing mar­ket. Although the H4 con­tin­u­a­tion clos­ing high­er with long buy­ing wick could indi­cate a pos­si­bil­i­ty for more upside. The H4 sup­ply over­head has been test­ed mul­ti­ple times now so is not the strongest. Larg­er time­frame is still hint­ing for more bull­ish sen­ti­ment longer term. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up 
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 price con­tin­u­a­tion high­er with long buy­ing wick after a bull engulf at demand and W1 QLo. Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment.
  • Pre­ferred: A price con­sol­i­da­tion  at VAH and H4 C‑sup before clos­ing con­fi­dent­ly above val­ue coin­cid­ing with an IB exten­sion up and fol­lowed by a sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: Large sup­ply overhead
• Hypo 2 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open inside
  • Pre­ferred: play off near­by LTF and ADR levels
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 trad­ing low­er test­ing 200MA and sup­plies (although the fre­quent test is weak­en­ing said levels)
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly con­fi­dent close below val­ue coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.92964
• H4-C‑S 1.91955

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.91540
• MN-C‑D 1.89719

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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