Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210302

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 9 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main fund

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body above W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 react­ed off D1-C‑S 1.92964 and D1 200MA and closed down at W1 QLo (not clos­ing with­in) with 
  • Price took out H4 sup­ply and cre­at­ed a new one through Bear Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.91955 clos­ing below D1 QHi with no fol­low-through. Instead some consolidation 
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 broke up from con­sol­i­da­tion (at W1 QLo) clos­ing above new­ly formed H4-C‑S 1.91955 at D1 QHi
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed on top of pre­vi­ous value
  • ADR: 1651
  • ASR: 1147
    • 29
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93232
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.90848

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.91955 at VAL with­in range
  • ADR exhaus­tion high at VAH but also D1-C‑S 1.92964 right there com­bined with LTF supply
  • ADR 0.5 High at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • DUe to the open inside we could see a bal­anc­ing mar­ket. Although the close inside was right at the open and H4 closed mak­ing a big bull­ish move. Thus we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move although a bit tricky due to hav­ing to reach VAH and reject up clos­ing above D1 C‑sup tak­ing out LTF supply. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Bal­anc­ing mar­ket plus D1 c‑sup as well as LTF sup­ply at VAH
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by ADR and LTF levels
  • Con: big move premarket
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Due to the large sup­ply over­head plus D1 c‑sup we could see a rejec­tion down
  • Pre­ferred: con­fi­dent close below VAL with IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auction.
  • Con: mas­sive move premarket
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Mas­sive move pre­mar­ket retrac­ing more than yesterday’s D1 body and larg­er time­frame narrative. 
  • Pre­ferred: Take out of LTF sup­ply and clos­ing con­fi­dent­ly above VAH with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion. Could be look­ing at a low/medium ini­tia­tive day.
  • Con: D1 C‑sup

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.92964
• H4-C‑S 1.91955

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.89719

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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