Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210301

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 9 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body above W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Big D1 Bull Engulf after react­ing off MN-C‑D 1.89719 clos­ing above W1 QLo arriv­ing but clos­ing below D1 200MA
  • H4 Phase 1 tran­si­tion to 2 arriv­ing at H4-C‑S 1.92219 (and with­in H4 QHi) fol­lowed by trad­ing below said sup­ply and H4 Qhi
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed as a DBD
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Large (1.3xASR) val­ue area was cre­at­ed last Fri­day above the pre­vi­ous value
  • ADR: 1555
  • ASR: 1100
    • 28
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.92884
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.89381

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.92964 at ADR 0.5 High and pre­vi­ous day’s high
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range (range equal to VAH)
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.4xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Asia trad­ed slight­ly low­er. Due to larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment we might see a Return to Val­ue (pre­mar­ket trad­ed low­er) before con­tin­u­ing high­er. On the oth­er side a val­ue accep­tance could mean more bal­anc­ing on the short term plus it would be oppos­ing the move on Fri­day. Due to some con­ges­tion at PPOC this might prove a bit risky of an oppor­tu­ni­ty although the trend is down and price has moved low­er below H4 supply.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Medi­um time­frame range with price trad­ing at top lev­els might see a move to the oth­er side
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down fol­lowed by val­ue acceptance
  • Con: Con­ges­tion at PPOC
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Asia trad­ed slight­ly lower.
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish Price action with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion. IB exten­sion down (test­ing VAH) with failed auc­tion might be a bet­ter oppor­tu­ni­ty as it clears some space to leave for a bet­ter prof­it target.
  • Con: Over­head H4 sup­ply, H4 QHi Rejec­tion, huge D1 bull engulf might see some retracement

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.92964
• H4-C‑S 1.92219

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.89719

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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