Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210225

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 8 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body with­in W1 QLo (no close yet) 

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 huge bear engulf­ing after react­ing off over­head sup­ply and D1 200MA giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.91955 clos­ing above MN-C‑D 1.89745 with­in W1 QLo with slight reac­tion off D1-C‑D 1.89878
  • Mid D1 swing
  • Clean arrival at H4 QLo formed an Inside Bar and some demand
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed as bear engulf
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Price trad­ing below value
  • ADR: 1365
  • ASR: 964
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93137
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.89608

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • N.A.
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Value,Outside Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.2xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. Yes­ter­day we had a uni­di­rec­tion­al day and today’s open shows a large imbal­ance that we could pos­si­bly have some form of a mean rever­sion. If we do hold below and take out new­ly formed demand we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 QLo, D1/MN C‑dem
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish price action with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion. Tar­get around VAL although some LTF con­ges­tion along the way.
  • Con: H4 bear engulf premarket
• Hypo 2 — Respon­sive activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 con­sol­i­da­tion continued
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 move
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly tak­ing out of new­ly formed demand, IB exten­sion down (momen­tum) sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Large Imbal­ance at the open as well as D1/MN c‑dem below. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Last two days of the month so might not trade at all. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94113
• D1-C‑S 1.92730

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.89878

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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