Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210224

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 8 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body. Too ear­ly to say if we could be mak­ing a W1 RBR or Evening Star

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 con­sol­i­da­tion at W1 QLo and D1-C‑D 1.91600 and break high­er test­ing D1-C‑S 1.92730
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion below D1 Qhi (no break above yet) with this Asia try­ing to break above but clos­ing below form­ing an Inside Bar with very long sell­ing wick (tak­ing out over­head sup­ply) clos­ing with­in consolidation. 
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed as an Inside Bar with long sell­ing wick
• Mixed Trend: H4 Down, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues with­in over­all range with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in value
  • ADR: 1123
  • ASR: 936
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.92761
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91930

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.92730 above VAH
  • H4-C‑D 1.91865 below VAL and range
  • ADR 0.5 high above D1 C‑sup
  • ADR 0.5 low below H4 C‑dem
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Due to the open sen­ti­ment and H4 con­sol­i­da­tion I am more lean­ing towards a bal­anc­ing sen­ti­ment. Although a retrace­ment to new­ly formed D1 c‑dem could mean more down­side espe­cial­ly after a D1 QHi rejec­tion and fail­ure to close above. Larg­er sen­ti­ment is still hint­ing for more upside though so need price action and mar­ket pro­file to guide any trad­ing decisions.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels. 
  • Con: D1 QHi rejection
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 push high­er with an ear­ly attempt dur­ing Asia (although with much push back pos­si­bly due to fill­ing orders) we could poten­tial­ly see a move high­er in line with larg­er time­frame sentiment.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly Val­ue Rejec­tion with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction
  • Con: D1 QHi Rejection
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 QHi rejec­tion, H4 DBD poten­tial­ly in the making
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly val­ue rejec­tion down IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction
  • Con: H4 and D1 c‑dems below

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94113
• D1-C‑S 1.92730

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.91865
• D1-C‑D 1.91600
• W1-C‑D 1.91185

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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