23 Feb Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210223
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Only take trades according to a hypo unless there are multiple conditions met
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price trading above last week’s body. Too early to say if we could be making a W1 RBR or Evening Star
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 formed a near-Doji with longer buying wick after reacting off D1-C‑D 1.91600, W1 QLo and D1 VWAP
- H4 Bull Engulf after consolidation giving H4-C‑D 1.91865 with follow-through returning to D1 QHi and D1 VWAP possible CAR although larger timeframe plus H4 price action could negate this.
- Premarket: Price traded higher
- Mixed Trend: H4 Down, D1 up, W1 down
- Market Profile
- 3 values in DT with currently price trading above value
- ADR: 1153
- ASR: 947
- 25
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1.92188
- Yesterday’s Low 1.91450
Sentiment
- Locations
- H4-C‑D 1.91865 within Value at PPOC
- D1-C‑D 1.91600 at VAL
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Above Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- 0.4xASR
- Narrative
- Moderate Imbalance. Price opened above value after rejecting W1/H4 QLo and H4 is moving higher. Although with D1 QHi and D1 VWAP (possible CAR) as well as D1 C‑sup in the way we could see a reversal.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 4
- Hypo 1 — Return to Value
- Narrative: W1/H4 QLo rejection, possible W1 RBR in the making
- Preferred: Pullback to VAH with bullish price action, IB extension up (momentum) and sustained auction
- Con: D1-C‑S 1.92730
- Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
- Narrative: Earlier D1 QHi rejection, possible W1 Evening Star in the making
- Preferred: Price action bearish reversal around D1 C‑sup IB extension down. Monitor for value acceptance
- Con: Open sentiment
- Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
- Narrative: same as Hypo 1
- Preferred: Directly trading higher taking out LTF supplies closing above D1 C‑sup with momentum extension up.
Additional notes
- N.A.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- H4-C‑S 1.94113
- D1-C‑S 1.92730
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1.91865
- D1-C‑D 1.91600
- W1-C‑D 1.91185
Mindful Trading
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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