Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210218

18 Feb Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210218

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 7 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 Bull Engulf clos­ing above W1 QLo negat­ing any low­er time frame QHi
  • Moved above last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Inside Bar (at D1 200MA and D1-C‑S 1.92939) with longer buy­ing wick react­ing off new­ly formed demand at D1-C‑D 1.92353
  • H4 is show­ing some con­sol­i­da­tion (cre­at­ing some sup­ply at D1 C‑sup) with longer buy­ing wicks still above H4 VWAP in UT, pos­si­ble redistribution
  • Pre­mar­ket: No fol­low-through on slight move down instead some demand formed above new­ly formed D1 C‑dem (coin­cid­ing with H4 VWAP in UT). Pre­mar­ket closed as H4 Morn­ing Star not clos­ing with­in over­head supply.
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the 5 day brack­et­ing range
  • ADR: 1103
  • ASR: 963
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93443
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92275

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1.92353 below val­ue below range
  • New­ly formed H4 morn­ing star c‑dem at VAL com­bined with LTF demand
  • ADR Exhaus­tion High just above LTF sup­plies although H4-C‑S 1.94113 is above
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anced mar­ket. Although due to new­ly formed H4 Morn­ing Star and larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment we could pos­si­bly see a Val­ue Rejec­tion Up. Oth­er­wise we can trade off near­by LTF and ADR levels. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 con­sol­i­da­tion, D1 pos­si­ble RBR, Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly strong close above VAH with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: Bal­anced open sen­ti­ment and H4 Morn­ing Star not hav­ing closed with­in over­head supply.
  • Vari­a­tion: Pos­si­bly due to H4-C‑S 1.94113 and ADR exhaus­tion we could see a rever­sal if Mar­ket Pro­file and price action rever­sal aligns.
• Hypo 2 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels
  • Con: larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94113
• D1-C‑S 1.92939

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.92353
• H4-C‑D 1.92000
• D1-C‑D 1.91538
• W1-C‑D 1.91185
• MN-C‑D 1.89745

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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