Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210217

17 Feb Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210217

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 7 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 Bull Engulf clos­ing above W1 QLo negat­ing any low­er time frame QHi
  • Moved above last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 clos­ing high­er at D1 200MA and deep­er into D1 QHi after react­ing off W1 QLo
  • H4-C‑D 1.92000 formed through a huge Bull Engulf fol­lowed by some pull­back leav­ing behind a long buy­ing wick.
  • Price con­tin­ued to form a H4 Bear­ish Inside Bar, prob­a­bly a consolidation
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 RBR
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 5 day brack­et with val­ue cre­at­ed below
  • ADR: 1109
  • ASR: 936
    • 24
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93334
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91641

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.94113 above ADR exhaustion
  • D1-C‑D 1.920000 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. Due to open sen­ti­ment we could see a pull­back to VAH or LTF demand as we have D1-C‑D 1.920000 at VAH this could be the pull­back in the larg­er time­frame bull­ish narrative. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, large imbal­ance at the open
  • Pre­ferred: Pull­back to LTF demand above VAH before con­tin­u­ing high­er, bull­ish price action, sus­tained auc­tion pos­si­ble exhaust­ing ADR
  • Con: Trad­ing right into D1 sup­ply we could see a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Large imbal­ance at the open
  • Pre­ferred: Asia moved high­er, we could see a slight con­tin­u­a­tion to the move dur­ing the ear­ly hours of the ses­sion before a failed auc­tion and move lower. 
  • Con: Larg­er time frame bull­ish sentiment
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment with H4 hav­ing formed a RBR
  • Pre­ferred: Momen­tum move high­er with sus­tained auc­tion exhaust­ing ADR
  • Con: Trad­ing right into D1 sup­ply we could see a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94113
• D1-C‑S 1.92939

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.92000
• D1-C‑D 1.91538
• W1-C‑D 1.91185
• MN-C‑D 1.89745

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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