Premarket Prep GBPNZD 12242020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 52 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a momen­tum play.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Returned to W1 sup base lev­el and trad­ing higher

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ed high­er above D1 VWAP in DT after BO
  • D1 Phase 2 although messy and run­ning into D1 50MA
  • Big H4 Bull Engulf at H4-C‑D 1.89547 fol­lowed by a big retrace­ment (although under 50%) with no fol­low-through. Instead a H4 Three Inside Up.
  • Took out D1/H4 sup­ply pre­mar­ket test­ing H4-C‑S 1.91276
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day brack­et
  • ADR: 1446
  • ASR: 1249
    • 31
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.91030
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.89294

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4 c‑sup at ADR 0.5 high, exhaus­tion above
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    •  Large Imbal­ance. Although H4/D1 sup­plies got tak­en out we could still see bull­ish sen­ti­ment in the mar­ket as well as a mean reversion.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Open 1.1xASR above val­ue, out­side range at H4 C‑sup
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Medi­um large time frame bull­ish sentiment.
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • H4/D1 sup­ply tak­en out premarket
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish price action with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Brex­it talks are still on

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.91545
• H4-C‑S 1.91276

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.89547

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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