Premarket Prep GBPNZD 12222020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 52 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a momen­tum play.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Returned to W1 sup base lev­el and trad­ing higher

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 react­ing off D1 QLo and D1-C‑D 1.97549 return­ing to over­head sup­ply at D1-C‑S 1.89834
  • H4-C‑D 1.88690 formed through Bull Engulf, price cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in H4 QHi react­ing sev­er­al times off H4-C‑S 1.89952 but still trad­ing higher
  • H4 closed deep­er into sup­ply premarket
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Yes­ter­day formed a wide val­ue area and price moved higher
  • Yes­ter­day closed as a poor low that got tak­en out dur­ing NY
  • ADR: 1502
  • ASR: 1235
    • 31
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.89963
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.87809

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.88690 at VAH
  • ADR 0.5 High, exhaus­tion near open
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Large Imbal­ance. Price has been force­ful trad­ing high­er deep­er into sup­ply. Asia took prices high­er so the mar­ket might be look­ing for a breather. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action con­fir­ma­tion, IB exten­sion down, pos­si­ble IB exten­sion up before fail­ing and fol­low­ing through down. 
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Pre­ferred: Price tak­ing out LTF demand dur­ing IB fol­lowed by bull­ish price action and IB exten­sion up
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out over­head H4 supply

Addi­tion­al notes

• Brex­it talks are still on

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.89952 (near round number)
• D1-C‑S 1.89834

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.88630

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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