Premarket Prep GBPNZD 12102020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing slight­ly below last week’s Inside Bar.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Morn­ing Star at MN-C‑D 1.89659 giv­ing D1-C‑D 1.89819, D1 phase 1 continued
  • H4 RBR with no fol­low-through, instead H4 Three Inside Down (giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.90471) return­ing to new D1 C‑dem. H4 Phase 1 con­tin­ued although con­tin­u­a­tion down clos­ing deep­er into demand.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 day brack­et­ing range with price cur­rent­ly with­in value
  • ADR: 1399
  • ASR: 1079
    • 28
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.91056
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.89060

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1.89819 inside val­ue near VAL, ADR 0.5 Low
  • H4 QLo below VAL with­in range
  • H4-C‑S 1.91275 at ADR exhaus­tion high, ADR 0.5 high
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.4 x ASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Still in over­all range. Pre­mar­ket and all of Asia trad­ed down exhaust­ing ADR before open which hap­pened around D1 C‑Dem. Due to being at the bot­tom of the range I am look­ing for a rever­sal going long. If price takes out demand around 1.89 there is still more demand below so short­ing seems more tricky.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Swing Rever­sal (Long)
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action with IB exten­sion up on momen­tum. Mon­i­tor for val­ue accep­tance and sus­tained auc­tion. Per­haps an IB exten­sion down with failed auc­tion higher. 
• Hypo 2 — Swing Rever­sal (Short)
  • Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: Val­ue rota­tion com­plet­ed fol­lowed by price action rever­sal at H4 C‑sup. Prefer­ably 4+ TPO struc­ture build up or sin­gle print fade. 
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive activity 
• Hypo 4 — Trend Continuation
  • Although unfa­vor­able but due to W1 Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick we could see see a con­tin­u­a­tion down. In case of a con­tin­u­a­tion I’d like to see a sus­tained auc­tion down tak­ing out demands. Best bet a low ini­tia­tive day. Still trad­ing into demand can be tricky to say the least. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Brex­it talks ongo­ing. No clear end in sight. Reports of “GBP weakening”.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.91275
• H4-C‑S 1.90471

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.89659
• D1-C‑D 1.89819
• D1-C‑D 1.89128

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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