Premarket Prep GBPNZD 12092020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing slight­ly below last week’s body.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Phase 1 con­tin­ues with an Inside bar formed at MN-C‑D 1.89659 leav­ing a long buy­ing wick behind
  • H4 Phase 1/3 with messy price action and new­ly demand formed on top of exist­ing H4/D1 demand shared with new­ly formed sup­ply on top. 
  • New H4 Bear Engulf formed giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.89658 right on MN C‑Dem
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Yesterday’s val­ue cre­at­ed on top of Monday’s after a val­ue rotation
  • ADR: 1371
  • ASR: 1072
    • 28
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.90088
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.88841

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • ADR 0.5 Low at D1 C‑dem
  • ADR 0.5 High at H4 C‑sup
  • H4-C‑S 1.89658 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1 x ASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance to almost bal­anc­ing. With prox­im­i­ty to val­ue and near­by D1 C‑dem it is more like­ly for a val­ue accep­tance. Even though pre­mar­ket price trad­ed down from the con­sol­i­da­tion we are still with­in the over­all range. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Pre­ferred: con­fi­dent close with­in val­ue tak­ing out LTF sup­ply leav­ing enough prof­it tar­get. Quick rotation. 
  • Con: New­ly formed H4 C‑sup at VAH
  • Hypo 1B — Vari­a­tion could be a rever­sal after rotation
  • Pre­ferred: Price action rever­sal and Failed Auc­tion. Or if IB rotates through a rever­sal with­in IB.
  • Hypo 1C — Con­tin­u­a­tion higher
  • Due to D1 price action we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move
  • Pre­ferred: Takig out LTF sup­plies above VAH. Tak­ing out H4 Sup­ply. IB exten­sion up (momen­tum)
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Strong rejec­tion from VAL clos­ing deep into under­ly­ing demand 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Brex­it talks ongoing

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.91275
• D1-C‑S 1.90483
• H4-C‑S 1.89658

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.89659
• D1-C‑D 1.89128
• H4-C‑D 1.88797

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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