Premarket Prep GBPNZD 12082020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Phase 1 con­tin­ues with yes­ter­day clos­ing as Bear Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.90483 but with under­ly­ing D1-C‑D 1.89128 being reac­tive and clos­ing with a longer buy­ing wick.
  • Big Bull Engulf at H4-C‑D 1.88797 fol­lowed by consolidation
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Yes­ter­day trad­ed below the pre­vi­ous day and cre­at­ed a wide val­ue area. Pos­si­ble volatil­i­ty pick up. Might be repo­si­tion­ing to make a move. ASR has widened as well. 
  • ADR: 1371
  • ASR: 931
    • 24
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.90881
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.88479

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • ADR 0.5 low at VAH, near­by H4/D1 C‑dems
  • ADR exhaus­tion low at VAL, near­by H4/D1 C‑dems
  • ADR 0.5 high at D1 C‑sup
  • ADR exhaus­tion high above D1 C‑sup
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5 x ASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. With H4/D1 C‑dems at val­ue we could see a return to val­ue. Although due to H4 show­ing poten­tial for more down­side we could see an accep­tance with rota­tion through before any upside. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1 — Return to Val­ue (with or with­out a VAA)
  • Pre­ferred: IB take out LTF demand, price action rever­sal at VAH. Mon­i­tor for either IB exten­sion up or failed auc­tion in case of exten­sion down. Even with a val­ue accep­tance we could end of revers­ing. Mon­i­tor for TPO struc­ture build up and reversal
  • Con: val­ue accep­tance with follow-through
• Hypo 2 — Reac­tive Activity
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up (momen­tum), sus­tained auction. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Brex­it talks ongoing

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.91275
• D1-C‑S 1.90483
• H4-C‑D 1.88797

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.89659
• D1-C‑D 1.89128

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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