Premarket Prep GBPNZD 12072020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if possible. 

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Retraced back to H4-C‑D 1.90553 BASE with con­tin­u­a­tion down arriv­ing at D1-C‑D 1.89833 and H4 QLo
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Pro­files in UT, cur­rent­ly price is below Value
  • ADR: 1371
  • ASR: 931
    • 24
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.91855
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.90132

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • LN open at ADR 0.5 with near­by ADR exhaus­tion and H4 QLo
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6 x ASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance but due to near by D1 C‑dem and H4 QLo, we could see a mean rever­sion. Although last H4 can­dle print­ed a strong Bear Engulf and ADR got exhaust­ed dur­ing ini­tial min­utes of IB. Fur­ther worth men­tion­ing if IB is too wide we could just see some reac­tive behav­iour although unlike­ly at this point due to news event it could just mean high momen­tum behind the move.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance, near­by D1 C‑Dem, H4 QLo
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion with sus­tained auc­tion. Mon­i­tor for val­ue acceptance.
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • News dri­ven. LTF bear­ish PA. 
  • Pre­ferred: Take out of LTF demands with a close deep with­in D1-C-Dem. Ib exten­sion down with sus­tained auction. 
• Hypo 3 — Return to Value
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up with PA rever­sal at VAL fol­lowed by failed auction. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• UK’s PM John­son: I am ready to pull out of talks with­in hours over EU demands

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.91275

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.89833
• MN-C‑D 1.89659
• D1-C‑D 1.89128

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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