Premarket Prep GBPNZD 12042020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 49 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if possible. 

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑D 1.89833 after react­ing off D1-C‑D 1.89128. Price still below D1 VWAP.
  • Took out H4-C‑S 1.89951 and closed deep into H4-C‑S 1.90363 (unclean arrival) cross­ing H4 50MA after hav­ing formed some demand giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.90216.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • The ASR is too tight to trade. Price is trad­ing above val­ue after hav­ing below the brack­et­ing range.
  • ADR: 1287
  • ASR: 840
    • 22
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.90739
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.88941

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1.89833 at VAL just above MN C‑dem
  • H4-C‑D 1.90216 at VAH but high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve (price seems to be in Phase 2 might see continuation. 
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2 x ASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Slight imbal­ance. H4 closed as an inside bar retrac­ing over 50% of the pre­ced­ing bar. New­ly formed H4 C‑dem might prove reac­tive being at VAH (although high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve) and we could form a H4 RBR. Going long would be safe if over­head sup­ply gets tak­en out at 1.90783. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Near VAH + H4 C‑dem
  • Pre­ferred strong bull­ish pat­tern and IB tak­ing out over­head sup­ply fol­lowed by IB exten­sion up (momen­tum). Sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Fri­day profit-taking
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Near prox­im­i­ty to val­ue. Near­by H4 C‑Sup. 
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly VAA. 
  • Con: LTF demand, mid h4 swing, D1 C‑dem at VAL

Addi­tion­al notes

• ASR is slight­ly tight. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.90363

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.89833
• MN-C‑D 1.89659
• H4-C‑D 1.89269
• D1-C‑D 1.89128
• H4-C‑D 1.88801

Mind­ful Trading

• Didn’t sleep well last night but feel­ing okay. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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