Premarket Prep GBPNZD 10212020

21 Oct Premarket Prep GBPNZD 10212020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 43 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade off M30/M15 for entries. M30, time-based, or look for exits after 2 hours (4 TPOs). Unless the entry is real­ly late.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• MN C‑Sup reac­tive again, how­ev­er been test­ed 3–4 times now
• W1 extend­ed above last week’s range returned back to range, above its body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 pushed high­er into MN C‑Sup and took out D1 sup­ply on the way. Closed high­er but with long sell­ing wick.
  • H4 Bear Engulf formed giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.97059 at MN C‑Sup (above UKC in a range) after test­ing over­head H4-C‑S 1.97415. Slight fol­low-through to the move away from sup­ply, fol­lowed by consolidation.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Over­lap­ping brack­ets again, with price at the top of the bracket
  • ADR: 1322
  • ASR: 1135
    • 29
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97683
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96188
    • Cur­rent­ly below val­ue, out­side range

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.96000 BASE at ADR 0.5 low and H4 VWAP in Range, H4-C‑D 1.95746 below near ADR exhaus­tion low
  • MN C‑Sup and H4-C‑S 1.97415 at VAH, ADR 0.5 high and Exhaustion
  • H4-C‑S 1.97059 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate imbal­ance. Due to H4-C‑S 1.97059 being at VAL and oth­er C‑sups at VAH I am weary to go for a VAA and am more in favor for a return to val­ue play. Although some news on Brex­it came out again and might have an impact. As we did test MN C‑Sup mul­ti­ple times now and D1 look­ing slight­ly bull­ish we might see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move up. The con­sol­i­da­tion on H4 kin­da made a move down found some demand and since open we have only been shoot­ing up. Will focus on read­ing order flow to guide my deci­sion-mak­ing since I kin­da lack clar­i­ty in over­all narrative.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1 — Return to Val­ue (short)
  • PA rever­sal at VAL
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auction. 
• Hypo 2 — VAA
  • Although val­ue is too tight and oppos­ing c‑lines make for a riski­er trade. Although the D1 phase 2 might still be in play.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.97415
• H4-C‑S 1.97059

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.95422
• H4-C‑D 1.96000 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram