Premarket Prep GBPNZD 10152020

15 Oct Premarket Prep GBPNZD 10152020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 42 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade off M30/M15 for entries. M30, time-based, or look for exits after 2 hours (4 TPOs). Unless the entry is real­ly late.
• SL place­ment
  • Add spread for shorts, sub­tract for longs

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing track slight­ly above last week’s body but with­in range still

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price retraced the pre­vi­ous day back up from demand at D1-C‑D 1.94736 to D1-C‑S 1.95562 leav­ing a long buy­ing wick behind and clos­ing as an inside bar at the 50% mark. Closed above W1 QLo.
  • H4 phase 2 ran into some con­ges­tion around D‑C-S 1.95562 form­ing a RBR. Price hasn’t arrived at H4 QHi yet
  • Yes­ter­day was a near com­plete retrace­ment of the pre­vi­ous uni­di­rec­tion­al day down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Yesterday’s val­ue was cre­at­ed below the brack­et­ing range but price pushed back up into the range
  • ADR: 1567
  • ASR: 1402
    • 35
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96119
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.93452
    • Cur­rent­ly above VAH, slight­ly out­side range, 0.7xASR

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.95562 at range high
  • ADR 0.5 Low at VAH
  • ADR 0.5 High at H4 QHi and D1-C‑S 1.96399
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above val­ue, out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.9xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. H4 mak­ing RBR although messy. Could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. How­ev­er, H4 QHi and D1-C‑S 1.96399 might prove reac­tive and since yes­ter­day and this morn­ing we trad­ed up we might see a mean reversion. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Mean Rever­sion (short) 
  • D1-C‑S 1.96399, QHi
  • Pre­ferred: price action rever­sal. Poten­tial­ly an exten­sion up slight­ly lat­er in the ses­sion fol­lowed by failed auc­tion. Oth­er­wise a rever­sal with­in IB plus exten­sion down. 
• Hypo 2 — Con­tin­u­a­tion (long) (risky)
  • Price above M30 VWAP, H4 mak­ing RBRs, hav­ing trad­ed back into pre­vi­ous­ly formed sup­ply, might see a continuation. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong IB exten­sion up ear­ly in the ses­sion. Sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF supplies. 
• Hypo 3 — Return to Value
  • D1-C‑D 1.94736 at VAH and ADR 0.5 low could see a bounce although prox­im­i­ty is a bit far. Per­haps lat­er on in the session. 
  • Pre­ferred: Hypo 1, TPO struc­ture built and price action reversal.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.96399
• D1-C‑S 1.95562

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.94736
• H4-C‑D 1.93720

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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