Premarket Prep GBPNZD 10092020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 41 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade off M30/M15 for entries. M30, time-based, or look for exits after 2 hours (4 TPOs). Unless the entry is real­ly late.
• SL place­ment
  • Add spread for shorts, sub­tract for longs

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Near MN-C‑S 1.97330
• W1 moved above last week’s range and QLo, could be form­ing RBR if Fri­day clos­es higher. 

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 messy phase 2. Yes­ter­day closed as a poten­tial Evening Star or Base but would need today to close to have confirmation. 
  • H4 Three Inside Down com­plete­ly retraced and no fol­low-through. Con­sol­i­da­tion instead with a DBD to VWAP. Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3. 
  • H4 still above VWAP
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Broke high­er from brack­et­ing range and formed VA above the pre­vi­ous but very near proximity
  • ADR: 1498
  • ASR: 1411
    • 36
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97267
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95690
    • Cur­rent­ly with­in value

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.96582 above VAH, with­in range
  • ADR 0.5 Low just below VAL and H4 VWAP H4-C‑D 1.95532
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Opened with­in val­ue at LTF demand and H4 VWAP
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Bal­anced mar­ket with H4-C‑D 1.95532 below VAL which might prove reac­tive for a fake out val­ue rejec­tion down. H4-C‑S 1.96582 above VAH for a sim­i­lar play. H4 formed an inside bar pre­mar­ket, could go either way. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure
  • Long, H4-C‑D 1.95532 below VAL, H4 VWAP, ADR 0.5 Low
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down, price action rever­sal, failed auction
  • Con: tak­ing out of M30 demand pos­si­bil­i­ty for Hypo 2
  • Short, H4-C‑S 1.96582 above VAH, LTF supplies
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up, price action rever­sal, failed auction
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3, H4 DBD, new inside bar formed pos­si­bil­i­ty for a new drop (or reversal)
  • Pre­ferred: M30 demand tak­en out, sus­tained auc­tion into H4 c‑dem
  • Con: H4 C‑Dem
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive activity

• Hypo 4 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • H4 VWAP in DT being reactive
  • Pre­ferred: Bull Engulf, IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion clear­ing over­head LTF sup­plies. Prob­a­bly low ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty. Possibi
  • Cons: Where to begin 🙂 LTF sup­plies, H4 C‑Sup, MN C‑Sup

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.98128
• H4-C‑S 1.97414
• H4-C‑S 1.96582

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95532
• D1-C‑D 1.94746

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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