Premarket Prep GBPNZD 10082020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 41 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• Only trade off M30/M15 for entries. M30, time-based, or look for exits after 2 hours (4 TPOs). Unless the entry is real­ly late.
• SL place­ment
  • Add spread for shorts, sub­tract for longs

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price tak­ing out H4/D1 supplies
  • H4-C‑D 1.95532 formed through bull engulf, phase 2, reached MN-C‑S 1.97330 (H4-C‑S 1.97414 just above) proved reac­tive closed with long sell­ing wick. Fol­lowed by H4 inside bar
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Break high­er from brack­et­ing range
  • ADR: 1455
  • ASR: 1432
    • 36
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96571
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94839
    • Cur­rent­ly price above VAH, out­side range, above yesterday’s high

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 moved above last week’s range and QLo but ran into MN-C‑S 1.94330. 2 days left for a close. 

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.95532 below VAH
  • ADR 0.5 and Exhaus­tion low at VAH
  • D1-C‑S 1.98128 above ADR exhaus­tion high
  • H4-C‑S 1.97414 above ADR 0.5 high
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above val­ue, out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Due to larg­er time frame over­head sup­ply plus larg­er imbal­ance at the open I am lean­ing towards a mean rever­sion. A con for this sen­ti­ment is the sup­plies that got tak­en out yesterday.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Rever­sion (short)
  • H4-C‑S 1.97414, ADR 0.5 high
  • Pre­ferred: PA rever­sal with­in IB, IB exten­sion down (pos­si­ble momen­tum trade), sus­tained auc­tion, ADR exhaus­tion low hit, pos­si­ble val­ue accep­tance after but less like­ly due to H4-C‑D 1.95532 just below VAH.
• Hypo 2 — Return to Val­ue (long)
  • Medi­um time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, VAH + H4-C‑D 1.95532
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down, price action rever­sal, failed auction

Addi­tion­al notes

• BOE Gov. Bai­ley speaks

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.98128
• H4-C‑S 1.97414

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95532
• D1-C‑D 1.94746

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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