08 Oct Premarket Prep GBPNZD 10082020
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly goal
- Only trade off M30/M15 for entries. M30, time-based, or look for exits after 2 hours (4 TPOs). Unless the entry is really late.
- SL placement
- Add spread for shorts, subtract for longs
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- Price taking out H4/D1 supplies
- H4-C‑D 1.95532 formed through bull engulf, phase 2, reached MN-C‑S 1.97330 (H4-C‑S 1.97414 just above) proved reactive closed with long selling wick. Followed by H4 inside bar
- Market Profile
- Break higher from bracketing range
- ADR: 1455
- ASR: 1432
- 36
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1.96571
- Yesterday’s Low 1.94839
- Currently price above VAH, outside range, above yesterday’s high
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- W1 moved above last week’s range and QLo but ran into MN-C‑S 1.94330. 2 days left for a close.
Sentiment
- Locations
- H4-C‑D 1.95532 below VAH
- ADR 0.5 and Exhaustion low at VAH
- D1-C‑S 1.98128 above ADR exhaustion high
- H4-C‑S 1.97414 above ADR 0.5 high
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Above value, outside range
- Open distance to value
- 0.6xASR
- Sentiment
- Due to larger time frame overhead supply plus larger imbalance at the open I am leaning towards a mean reversion. A con for this sentiment is the supplies that got taken out yesterday.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 4
- Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion (short)
- H4-C‑S 1.97414, ADR 0.5 high
- Preferred: PA reversal within IB, IB extension down (possible momentum trade), sustained auction, ADR exhaustion low hit, possible value acceptance after but less likely due to H4-C‑D 1.95532 just below VAH.
- Hypo 2 — Return to Value (long)
- Medium timeframe bullish sentiment, VAH + H4-C‑D 1.95532
- Preferred: IB extension down, price action reversal, failed auction
Additional notes
- BOE Gov. Bailey speaks
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- D1-C‑S 1.98128
- H4-C‑S 1.97414
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1.95532
- D1-C‑D 1.94746
Mindful Trading
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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