Premarket Prep GBPNZD 10062020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 41 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 close with­in over­head sup­ply of D1-C‑S 1.95030 with slight­ly longer buy­ing wick push­ing off D1-C‑D 1.94743 and VWAP CAS 
  • H4 Bull Engulf above H4 QLo and D1-C‑D 1.94743 and move high­er with slight push­back from over­head sup­ply until reach­ing H4-C‑S 1.95583 (not entire­ly at QHi but there is a lot of con­ges­tion in the way) form­ing a pos­si­ble RBR or D due to the inside bar. Will need to check at the end of cur­rent H4 can­dle for more clues. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Pro­files still bracketing
  • ADR: 1389
  • ASR: 1448
    • 36
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.95709
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94235
    • Cur­rent­ly price trad­ing above VAH with­in range

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing above last week’s body but with­in range. IF we keep this up (big IF since it’s only Tues­day) we could close as a RBR break­ing out from VWAP. Big IF still so could go either way. 

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • ADR 0.5 high at H4 QHi but a lot of con­ges­tion in the way
  • D1-C‑S 1.95030 just below VAH but new LTF demand cre­at­ed on top of VAH
  • ADR 0.5 Low just below VAL, D1-C‑D 1.94743 and LTF strong demand
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above val­ue, out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • H4 closed form­ing a morn­ing star and indi­cat­ing more bull­ish­ness. Price hit H4 QHi so going with the move might prove a bit risky. The dis­tance sug­gest it can go either way in terms of sen­ti­ment. Con­flu­ence of ADR 0.5, LTF sup­ply, QHi and H4-C-S‑1.96171 sug­gest a rever­sal might be the safest play. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Rever­sal (short)
  • ADR 0.5, LTF sup­ply, QHi and H4-C-S‑1.96171 with price action con­firm­ing a reversal
  • Pre­ferred: strong Bear­ish Can­dle leav­ing enough R/R, 
  • Cons: H4 clos­ing high­er into over­head sup­ply indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble momen­tum on the bull­ish side. M30 VWAP again in the way. Ear­ly entry might have been best. 
• Hypo 2 — Return to val­ue (long)
  • VAH at H4-C‑D 1.95357, M30 VWAP, H4 clos­ing higher
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down, PA rever­sal at VAH, failed auc­tion, form­ing Neu­tral Day extend­ing over IB tak­ing out LTF supplies.
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Accep­tance (short)
  • Too much con­ges­tion due to LTF demands and high­er time frame c‑dem

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.95030 NRN

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95357
• D1-C‑D 1.94743
• H4-C‑D 1.93724

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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