Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09242020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 39 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 RBR (tak­ing out sup­ply and closed above 1.94, right below VWAP) con­firm­ing a tran­si­tion to phase 2, price is now trad­ing at VWAP, D1-C‑D 1.92284 BASE formed
• Price closed well above H4/D1 QLo
• H4 RBR giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.94262 BASE now trad­ing below H4-C‑S 1.94667 (but no high­er time frame supplies)
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive pro­files print­ed above the previous
  • ADR: 1483
  • ASR: 1451
    • 363
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94476
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91538
    • Price above value(¾ ASR), range and yesterday’s high

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing above W1 Demand but still with­in QLo

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.94667 
  • H4-C‑D 1.94262 BASE 
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above val­ue, out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • ¾ ASR but made a high to 0.9xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Due to not ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion fac­tors at the open, might be indica­tive of high­er momen­tum and could be look­ing at a continuation
      • But because we did hit it at ADR 0.5 we might see a mean reversion.
    • With H4-C‑D 1.94262 BASE not far below, if hit, we could see a fur­ther retracement.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
• Hypo 1 — con­tin­u­a­tion long
  • Momen­tum trade long extend­ing IB range dur­ing 1st two hours, sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out H4 supply
  • Con: trad­ing right into H4 supply
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Price action con­firm­ing rever­sal, IB exten­sion down, 
  • Pre­ferred: hit­ting H4-C‑D 1.94262 BASE we could see a fur­ther retrace­ment, mon­i­tor val­ue accep­tance for a poten­tial con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. 
• Hypo 3 — Con­tin­gency on Hypo 1
  • No momen­tum, slight IB exten­sion up fol­lowed by failed auction
  • Pre­ferred: sim­i­lar to Hypo 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• BOE Gov Bai­ley Speaks at 10pm

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94667

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.94262 BASE
• D1-C‑D 1.92284 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • OK to take 1R when in DD
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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