Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09172020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 38 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 fol­low-through after the Bull Engulf on Tues­day, no close above D1 QLo
• H4 Bull Engulf fol­lowed by ral­ly tak­ing out over­head sup­ply, con­sol­i­da­tion, and ral­ly cre­at­ing demand at H4-C‑D 1.92541
• H4 Phase 2
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Pro­files Brack­et­ing but price trad­ing over brack­et high
  • ADR: 1291
  • ASR: 1223
    • 306
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.92989
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91287
    • Price above yesterday’s high

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Retrac­ing last week’s move down to LKC, cur­rent­ly trad­ing above W1 Demand.

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.92541 above val­ue with­in range
  • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91287 at W1-C‑D 1.92067
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above val­ue, out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.3xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Open at ADR exhaus­tion fol­lowed by IB trad­ing down, mean rever­sion might be done soon
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Mean Rever­sion Short
  • 1.3xASR, with pro­file sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Price action con­fir­ma­tion rever­sal, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auc­tion, val­ue accep­tance (would change medium/higher time frame sentiment)
• Hypo 2 — Bounce off H4-C‑D 1.92541
  • Yesterday’s high is near, VAH
  • Pre­ferred: price action con­fir­ma­tion rever­sal, failed auction

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H45-C‑S 1.94667

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.92541
• W1-C‑D 1.92067

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • OK to take 1R when in DD
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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