Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09102020

10 Sep Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09102020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 37 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 phase 4 closed with­in W1 QLo at LKC
• H4 phase 4, H4-C‑D 1.94185 proved reac­tive but no fol­low-through. Instead some sup­ply cre­at­ed with H4 Bear Engulf (H4-C‑S 1.94717) and price moved down clos­er to demand
• Near­ing D1/H4 QLo if price can clear H4-C‑D 1.94185
• Mar­ket Profile
  • ADR: 1275
  • ASR: 1033
  • Day
    • Yesterday’s High 1.96218
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94084
    • Price with­in day range near day low
  • Loca­tions
    • Pro­file and M30 VWAP in DT
    • H4-C‑S 1.94717 with­in value
    • H4-C‑D 1.94185 below val­ue, with­in range

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• D1 closed with­in W1 QLo

Sen­ti­ment

• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Inside Val­ue
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A. 
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Respon­sive activ­i­ty. Pos­si­ble val­ue rejec­tion down due to H4 c‑sup. If price rejects val­ue to the upside we could poten­tial­ly have a rever­sal around ADR exhaus­tion (even though that would be against a con­tin­u­a­tion on most of the times). The rea­son I think that is because H4 VWAP in DT is in the way and the main trend is still down. Oth­er­wise no real opportunities.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Respon­sive activity
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • H4-C‑S 1.94717, con­fi­dent close out­side of val­ue, sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 3 — Mean Rever­sion after Val­ue rejec­tion up
  • ADR exhaus­tion com­bined with H4 VWAP and LTF sup­ply ZOI could prove reac­tive. Pre­ferred: rever­sal pat­tern, 4+ TPO struc­ture build up, failed auction

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94717

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.94185
• H4-C‑D 1.92711

Mind­ful Trading

• Took a nap. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • OK to take 1R when in DD
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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