Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09092020

09 Sep Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09092020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 37 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 Phase 4, cross down from 50MA
• H4 Bear Engulf formed (H4-C‑S 1.96171) right on top of pre­vi­ous demand
• Mid D1/H4 Swing
• Mar­ket Profile
  • ADR: 1204
  • ASR: 970
  • Day
    • Yesterday’s High 1.96763
    • Yesterday’s Low 1.95501
    • Price with­in day range near day low
  • Loca­tions
    • M30 VWAP in DT
    • H4-C‑S 1.96171 near VAH at PPOC

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Below last week’s range near­ing W1 QLo

Sen­ti­ment

• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Price hit ADR exhaus­tion dur­ing IB. We could see a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion since the open is only 0.5xASR away. I’ll stay open to that pos­si­bil­i­ty though.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Con­tin­u­a­tion (short)
  • Pref­ered: IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion. Could be grounds for a momen­tum trade due to medi­um and larg­er time frame bear­ish sentiment.
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Not too cer­tain on this since LN opened mod­er­ate­ly imbal­ance plus we hit ADR exhaus­tion dur­ing LN.
  • Pre­ferred: a strong M30 rever­sal pat­tern, IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 3 — Return to val­ue (short)
  • A pos­si­ble return to value/range before rolling over to con­tin­ue the direc­tion down
  • Pref­ered: Ib exten­sion up, price action con­firm­ing a rever­sal fol­lowed by a failed auction. 
• Hypo 4 — Mean Reversion
  • Exten­sion down hit­ting H4-C‑D 1.94804 being reac­tive with price action rever­sal, failed auc­tion up, val­ue acceptance

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.96754
• H4-C‑S 1.96171

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.96760
• H4-C‑D 1.96133
• H4-C‑D 1.94804

Mind­ful Trading

• A bit tired

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • OK to take 1R when in DD
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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