Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09082020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 37 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 DBD to D1 50MA but no D1 or W1 demand below
• Push away from H4-C‑S 1.97413 (test­ing sup­ply aain with sell­ing wick) arriv­ing at H4-C‑D 1.96133 before form­ing a strong inside bar with no fol­low-through that turned into a con­sol­i­da­tion form­ing some demand (H4-C‑D 1.96760) although price hasn’t left it
• Took out H4 QLo and made a new one so cur­rent­ly mid swing
• Mar­ket Profile
  • ADR: 1207
  • ASR: 923
  • Day
    • Yesterday’s High 1.97578
    • Yesterday’s Low 1.96219
    • Price with­in day range near day low
  • Loca­tions
    • H4-C‑D 1.96760 with­in value
    • Yesterday’s low = VAL

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Below last week’s range around W1-C‑D 1.97865 BASE

Sen­ti­ment

• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Bear­ish
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — respon­sive activity
• Hypo 2 — short val­ue rejection
  • (This is what I had hoped for ear­li­er but we had an open with­in val­ue. Below Val­ue, out­side range but Yesterday’s low = VAL so grounds for mod­er­ate imbal­ance and con­tin­u­a­tion to the move.
  • Momen­tum con­tin­u­a­tion trade)
  • Pre­ferred: Con­fi­dent close out­side of value,price action con­firm­ing a sus­tained auc­tion down, hit­ting ADR exhaus­tion call­ing in the pos­si­bil­i­ty for an abnor­mal day.
• Hypo 3 — Long
  • long off H4 C‑Dem but since LN opened with­in val­ue this is some­what more risky. Might try a half sized position. 
  • Pre­ferred M30 Bull engulf rever­sal on H4 c‑dem

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.98136
• H4-C‑S 1.97413

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.96760
• H4-C‑D 1.96133

Mind­ful Trading

• A bit tired

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • OK to take 1R when in DD
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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