Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09042020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 36 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1-C‑D 1.97354 proved reac­tive and price returned back to D1-C‑S 1.98136 form­ing an almost bull engulf. Pos­si­ble tran­si­tion to phase 1 or 2.
• H4-C‑D 1.97135 through phase 1 with con­se­quent tran­si­tion to phase 2
• H4 ral­ly clos­ing above H4QLo
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Yes­ter­day was an open slight­ly below session’s range, with val­ues near­ly overlapping
  • ADR: 1276
  • ASR: 997
  • Day
    • Day High 1.98298
    • Day Low 1.96820
    • Price with­in day range near day high
  • Loca­tions
    • D1-C‑S 1.98136 at yesterday’s high, 1xASR above VAH
    • D1-C‑D 1.97354 near VAH and ADR 0.5
    • ADR exhaus­tion with­in value

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Below last week’s range around W1-C‑D 1.97865 BASE (at H4 QLo)

Sen­ti­ment

• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above val­ue, out­side range at D1-C‑S 1.98136 about 1xASR away
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mean rever­sion, backed by H4 Bear Engulf
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 5
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Above val­ue, out­side range at D1-C‑S 1.98136 about 1xASR away
  • Cons H4 QLo, price above H4 VWAP
• Hypo 2: long
  • D1 bull engulf, no test of VWAP after cross­ing down, pos­si­bly tak­ing out H4 sup­ply. Pre­ferred: tak­ing out of over­head sup­ply with sus­tained auc­tion, exhaust­ing ADR. Cons: Pro­file sen­ti­ment due to locataion away from VAH.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.98136

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.97354
• H4-C‑D 1.97135

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • OK to take 1R when in DD
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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