Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09032020

03 Sep Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09032020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 36 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 phase 4 con­tin­u­a­tion after bear engulf the pre­ced­ing day clos­ing slight­ly with­in demand with longer buy­ing wick
• H4 phase 4 (form­ing H4-C‑S 1.97506) but some con­sol­i­da­tion now cre­at­ing some demand (even though bear engulf with­in con­sol­i­da­tion no fol­low-through yet) pos­si­ble tran­si­tion to Phase 1 or just a speed bump
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Yes­ter­day was an open below the brack­et­ing range
  • ADR: 1248
  • ASR: 1166
  • Day
    • Day High 1.98170
    • Day Low 1.96701
    • Price with­in day range
  • Loca­tions
    • ADR 0.5 at day low
    • H4-C‑S 1.97506 at VAH (weak­er due to com­ing from the inside)
    • H4-C‑D 1.96594 (weak) at ADR 0.5

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Below Last month’s body, with­in range
• Below last week’s range in line with evening star

Sen­ti­ment

• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below val­ue, slight­ly out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    •  0.4xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • No mean rever­sion cri­te­ria ful­filled due to open still near VAL by 0.4 ASR. H4 print­ing a Bear Engulf and then poten­tial­ly form­ing a DBD.Slightly Short.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1 — Short
  • Medi­um and large time frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment. Slight­ly out­side range (0.4xASR)
  • Pre­ferred: 2nd Chance Entry. IB exten­sion down. Sus­tained auc­tion. ADR exhaustion.
  • Cons: H4-C-dem (old­er) with­in H4 QLo
• Hypo 2 — Long 
  • Unsafe due to large time bear­ish sen­ti­ment and no large imbal­ance, plus very tight val­ue and low­er time frame supplies
  • ADR 0.5 at H4-C‑D 1.96594
  • Pre­ferred: Val­ue Acceptance

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.98966
• D1-C‑S 1.98136
• H4-C‑S 1.97506

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.98128
• H4-C‑D 1.96594

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • OK to take 1R when in DD
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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