Premarket Prep GBPNZD 09022020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 36 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 Bear Engulf with longer sell­ing wick (VWAP CAR) after con­sol­i­da­tion form­ing D1-C‑S 1.98136
• D1 Phase 4 still in effect test­ing D1-C-D1.97354 which is from August 7th
• H4-C‑S 1.98966 test­ed through a medi­um inside bar (still in line with VWAP in DT)
• Mar­ket Profile
  • ADR: 1279
  • ASR: 1263
  • Day
    • Day High 1.99275
    • Day Low 1.97668
    • Price below Day Low
  • Loca­tions
    • D1-C‑D 1.97354 at ADR 0.5, near ADR Exhaus­tion, 1xASR away from VAL
    • D1-C‑D 1.97865 right at H4 QLo
    • D1-C‑S 1.98136 near VAL

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• MN closed as a pin bar above pre­vi­ous month’s range
• Below last week’s range in line with evening star

Sen­ti­ment — Neutral

• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below val­ue, out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • about 0.8x ASR, but HK 1xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Price below val­ue, 1xASR dis­tance already reached dur­ing HK trad­ing below ADR 0.5, ADR exhaus­tion not far off so there are grounds for a mean rever­sion although larg­er time frame is in phase 4 this would be con­sid­ered an unsafe play. Going along with ADR exhaus­tion or a return to val­ue would be a safer play.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Short
  • ADR exhaus­tion, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auction
• Hypo 2 — Long
  • LN open below val­ue, out­side range, mean rever­sion at D1-C‑D 1.97354 at ADR 0.5, near ADR Exhaus­tion, 1xASR away from VAL
• Hypo 3 — Short
  • Return to val­ue, D1-C‑S 1.98136 near VAL, fake out momen­tum, failed auction,

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.98966
• D1-C‑S 1.98136

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.98128

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • OK to take 1R when in DD
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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