Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08272020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 35 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 closed as a bear engulf going against D1-C‑D 2.00208 (with­in clut­ter) in line with Phase 3. Bear Engulf giv­ing more weight to pre­vi­ous sup­ply form­ing new D1-C‑S 2.00220 clos­ing below D1 200MA but still above VWAP and D1-C‑D 1.98688 seems to be reac­tive (for now)
• D1 Phase 3 no break from range yet
• H4 phase 4 and price arrived at H4-C‑D 1.99491 with­out reaction
• Yes­ter­day was uni­di­rec­tion­al and moved 97% of ADR
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Mul­ti-day brack­et­ing, but price moved below its range
  • ADR: 1425
  • ASR: 1220
  • Ses­sion
    • High 2.00847
    • Low 1.99353
    • Price below yesterday’s range and neared ADR 0.5 and D1-C‑D 1.98688
  • Loca­tions
    • D1-C‑S 2.00220 at VAL and ADR Exhaustion
    • H4-C‑D 1.99491 at H4 QLo, a close above this lev­el would con­firm a bull­ish sen­ti­ment on the short term
    • D1-C‑D 1.98688 at ADR 0.5

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Mov­ing away from D1 QHi
• Mid MN, W1 swing
• W1 below pre­ced­ing week’s can­dle, with­in range
• H4, D1 trend is up, W1 is down

Sen­ti­ment

• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, out­side range, below yesterday’s range, low­er time frame sup­ply at ADR 0.5 and 1xASR away, with­in H4 QLo, but larg­er time frame phase 3
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • about 1x ASR
  • IB
    • Move slight­ly away from Yes­ter­day ses­sion low test­ing low­er time frame demand.
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • The larg­er imbal­ance paired with yes­ter­day being uni­di­rec­tion­al could sug­gest a mean rever­sion up, although due to larg­er time frame phase 3 impli­ca­tions this would be some­what unsafe
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Long
  • Mean rever­sion: large imbal­ance, bounce off ADR 0.5 and D1-C‑D 1.98688, yesterday’s uni­di­rec­tion­al day,
    • Pre­ferred: sus­tained auc­tion clos­ing above D1-C‑D 1.99491 through Bull Engulf
• Hypo 2 — Return to val­ue, VAL + D1-C‑S 2.00220
• Hypo 3 — mean reversion
  • con­tin­u­a­tion of phase 4, hit­ting ADR exhaus­tion, TPO struc­ture build and price action con­fir­ma­tion for a reversal.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 2.00668
• D1-C‑S 2.00220

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.99491
• D1-C‑D 1.98688

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING