Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08252020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 35 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 closed as doji with­in demand
• D1 Phase 3 is still more like­ly because of UT and first rejec­tion of D1 QHi (dis­tri­b­u­tion can con­tin­ue a while though. 
• H4 Bear Engulf formed with­in val­ue yes­ter­day cre­at­ing some sup­ply, today already tak­en out after a morn­ing star (cre­at­ing H4-C‑D 2.00046 what was pre­vi­ous­ly a c‑sup) and con­se­quent push higher
  • H1 cre­at­ed some demand above it and con­se­quent RBR
• Mid H4 swing, mov­ing away from H4-C‑D 2.00046 and D1-C-SD 2.00546
• Mar­ket Profile
  • LN open
    • LN open above val­ue, inside range
  • Mul­ti day bracketing
  • ADR 1605
  • ASR 1337
  • W1-C‑S 2.02267 with­in H4 QHi
  • H4-C‑D 2.00046 above H4 QLO, below val­ue, with­in range
  • D1-C-SD 2.00546 right at VAH
  • ADR 0.5 above val­ue, out­side range, with­in low­er time frame supply
  • ADR Exhaus­tion above val­ue, out­side range, at H4 QHi

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Near D1 QHi
• Mid MN, W1 swing
• W1 above pre­ced­ing week’s can­dle, with­in range
• H4, D1 trend is up, W1 is down

Sen­ti­ment — Slight­ly Bearish

• Sen­ti­ment
  • D1 Phase 3 is still assumed how­ev­er being at the bot­tom of the range there might be some buy­ing com­ing in. Not the safest play, but per­haps if sen­ti­ment con­firms there might be a quick play. Ide­al­ly we have an open above val­ue, out­side range and coin­cid­ing con­di­tions for a mean rever­sion play in line with the D1 Phase 2 short sen­ti­ment. With LN open very close to VAH and with H1 new­ly formed sup­ply I think going long would have a lot of con­ges­tion so prob­a­bly not worth it. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — LONG
  • LN open above val­ue, inside range (against over­all phase 3 sentiment)
    • VAH at D1-C-SD 2.00546, IB range exten­sion, sus­tained auction
• Hypo 2 — Short
  • Val­ue Acceptance

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 2.02267
• D1-C-SD 2.00546

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C-SD 2.00546
• H4-C‑D 2.00046

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept okay, still sick

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING