25 Aug Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08252020
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias.
Weekly goal
- Formulate hypos in order of likelihood and track with actual development on the day
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- D1 closed as doji within demand
- D1 Phase 3 is still more likely because of UT and first rejection of D1 QHi (distribution can continue a while though.
- H4 Bear Engulf formed within value yesterday creating some supply, today already taken out after a morning star (creating H4-C‑D 2.00046 what was previously a c‑sup) and consequent push higher
- H1 created some demand above it and consequent RBR
- Mid H4 swing, moving away from H4-C‑D 2.00046 and D1-C-SD 2.00546
- Market Profile
- LN open
- LN open above value, inside range
- Multi day bracketing
- ADR 1605
- ASR 1337
- W1-C‑S 2.02267 within H4 QHi
- H4-C‑D 2.00046 above H4 QLO, below value, within range
- D1-C-SD 2.00546 right at VAH
- ADR 0.5 above value, outside range, within lower time frame supply
- ADR Exhaustion above value, outside range, at H4 QHi
- LN open
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Near D1 QHi
- Mid MN, W1 swing
- W1 above preceding week’s candle, within range
- H4, D1 trend is up, W1 is down
Sentiment — Slightly Bearish
- Sentiment
- D1 Phase 3 is still assumed however being at the bottom of the range there might be some buying coming in. Not the safest play, but perhaps if sentiment confirms there might be a quick play. Ideally we have an open above value, outside range and coinciding conditions for a mean reversion play in line with the D1 Phase 2 short sentiment. With LN open very close to VAH and with H1 newly formed supply I think going long would have a lot of congestion so probably not worth it.
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 4
- Hypo 1 — LONG
- LN open above value, inside range (against overall phase 3 sentiment)
- VAH at D1-C-SD 2.00546, IB range extension, sustained auction
- LN open above value, inside range (against overall phase 3 sentiment)
- Hypo 2 — Short
- Value Acceptance
Additional notes
- N.A.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 2.02267
- D1-C-SD 2.00546
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C-SD 2.00546
- H4-C‑D 2.00046
Mindful Trading
- Slept okay, still sick
Focus Points for trading development
- Weekly Goal
- Formulate hypos in order of likelihood and track with actual development on the day
- Incorporate profile day type
- Trading Rules
- If Open outside of value consider the placement in relation to ADR
- Don’t take into consideration medium time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
- FX within value > DAX
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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