Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08212020

21 Aug Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08212020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 34 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Week­ly goal

• For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 huge bull engulf reach­ing for but hasn’t arrived there (yet) D1-C‑S 2.03784
  • Lots of sell­ers got stuck the day prior
• Some Phase 1 cre­at­ing H4-C‑D 1.99504 tran­si­tions into phase 2 reach­ing for D1 QHi might get reac­tive. Small sup­ply formed here through con­sol­i­da­tion with H4-C‑S 2.02263
  • Could just be a speed bump or start of phase 3
• New H4-C‑D 2.02345 formed dur­ing AS (weak­er due to being with­in the clutter)
• Mar­ket Profile
  • ADR 1597
  • ASR 1135
  • LN open
    • Above val­ue out­side range
  • D1-C‑S 2.03784 @ ADR Exhaus­tion inside D1/H4 QHi
  • H4-C‑S 2.02263 just below H4 Qhi above val­ue out­side range

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Just below D1 QHi
• Mid MN, W1 swing
• W1 high above pre­ced­ing week’s candle
• H4, D1 trend is up, W1 is down

Sen­ti­ment — Slight­ly Bearish

• Sen­ti­ment
  • Price above val­ue how­ev­er also out­side range, yes­ter­day 2 ses­sions uni­di­rec­tion­al, plus today being a Fri­day there might be get­ting ready for some sell­ing off profit-taking.
  • H4 QHi right at 1xASR and ADR 0.5 at 1x ADR with price above val­ue out­side range might be con­ducive to a mean rever­sion trade
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • H4 QHi right at 1xASR and ADR 0.5 at 1x ADR with price 110 pips above val­ue out­side range might be con­ducive to a mean rever­sion trade, Fri­day poten­tial sell off, 2 ses­sions yes­ter­day uni­di­rec­tion­al with no sig­nif­i­cant retrace­ment, sus­tained auc­tion down
  • Cons: low­er time frame demand ZOIs, D1-C‑S 2.03784 coin­cid­ing with ADR exhaus­tion would have been safer
• Hypo 2
  • Val­ue Acceptance
  • Cons: still some way to go might see a return to val­ue and rever­sal but then H4 demand would have been tak­en out so that would be positive.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 2.03784
• H4-C‑S 2.02263

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.99504
• H4-C‑D 2.02345  (weak)

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
  • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING