Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08062020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 32 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1 inside bar retrac­ing more than 50% clos­ing slight­ly with­in sup­ply D1-C‑S 1.97289
• New­ly formed H4-C‑D 1.97445 through bull engulf not tak­ing out the over­head sup­ply H4-C‑S 1.97491 but near
• Medi­um term time frame range
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Price trad­ed high­er dur­ing AS hit­ting ADR 0.5 near swing high of the range
  • Cur­rent­ly above val­ue and range
    • Mild-mod­er­ate imbalance
  • ASR 1100 
    • MAX SL (including/excluding spread)
      • Short 33 pips
      • Long 23
  • ADR 1272

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Mid MN, W1, and D1 swing
• W1 trad­ing above pre­vi­ous week’s body after a small retrace­ment, stil two days left
• H4, D1 trend is up, W1 is down

Hypos

1. If open above val­ue and range, I’d like to see a bull­ish price action con­fir­ma­tion at VAH & H4-C‑D 1.97445. Pos­si­ble ear­ly entry war­rant­ed (per­haps based on low­er time frame) could be con­sid­ered. Oth­er­wise a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade trad­ing off IB exten­sion up. ADR exhaus­tion does coin­cide with M30 sup­ply so that could make for a good prof­it tar­get. Prefer­ably a sus­tained auc­tion through TPO leav­ing sin­gle prints behind exhaus­tion ADR to form a uni­di­rec­tion­al day. A medi­um ini­tia­tive day would have TPOs not clos­ing with­in IB but price action con­firm­ing a slow and steady incline. 
2. If auc­tion is not sus­tained we could see either sin­gle prints fad­ed or a close with­in IB con­firm­ing a failed auc­tion. Based on if price action con­firms and price hasn’t extend­ed IB to the down­side, there might be an oppor­tu­ni­ty for an ear­ly entry before val­ue acceptance
3. Anoth­er option could be (ear­ly) val­ue accep­tance through a con­fi­dent M30 (or M15 on the hour or half hour) close with­in val­ue for a pos­si­ble val­ue rota­tion, VAL coin­cid­ing with ADR 0.5 and exhaustion

Sen­ti­ment — Slight­ly Bearish

Addi­tion­al notes

• Today
  • BOE Gov Bai­ley Speaks

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.99731
• D1-C‑S 1.97289
• H4-C‑S 1.97491
• H1-C‑S 1.97817

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.97445

Mind­ful Trading

• Slept okay but woke up a few times.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • Have cor­rect SL place­ment and posi­tion sizing
  • Trade idea con­sid­er­ing mar­ket con­text based on larg­er time frame analysis 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 1 allowed prod­ucts, no rules under active experimentation
    • GBPNZD
  • 1 active opened positions
  • 3 trades with 1% risk
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING