06 Aug Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08062020
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias.
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- D1 inside bar retracing more than 50% closing slightly within supply D1-C‑S 1.97289
- Newly formed H4-C‑D 1.97445 through bull engulf not taking out the overhead supply H4-C‑S 1.97491 but near
- Medium term time frame range
- Market Profile
- Price traded higher during AS hitting ADR 0.5 near swing high of the range
- Currently above value and range
- Mild-moderate imbalance
- ASR 1100
- MAX SL (including/excluding spread)
- Short 33 pips
- Long 23
- MAX SL (including/excluding spread)
- ADR 1272
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Mid MN, W1, and D1 swing
- W1 trading above previous week’s body after a small retracement, stil two days left
- H4, D1 trend is up, W1 is down
Hypos
- If open above value and range, I’d like to see a bullish price action confirmation at VAH & H4-C‑D 1.97445. Possible early entry warranted (perhaps based on lower time frame) could be considered. Otherwise a possible momentum trade trading off IB extension up. ADR exhaustion does coincide with M30 supply so that could make for a good profit target. Preferably a sustained auction through TPO leaving single prints behind exhaustion ADR to form a unidirectional day. A medium initiative day would have TPOs not closing within IB but price action confirming a slow and steady incline.
- If auction is not sustained we could see either single prints faded or a close within IB confirming a failed auction. Based on if price action confirms and price hasn’t extended IB to the downside, there might be an opportunity for an early entry before value acceptance
- Another option could be (early) value acceptance through a confident M30 (or M15 on the hour or half hour) close within value for a possible value rotation, VAL coinciding with ADR 0.5 and exhaustion
Sentiment — Slightly Bearish
Additional notes
- Today
- BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- D1-C‑S 1.99731
- D1-C‑S 1.97289
- H4-C‑S 1.97491
- H1-C‑S 1.97817
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1.97445
Mindful Trading
- Slept okay but woke up a few times.
Focus Points for trading development
- Weekly Goal
- Have correct SL placement and position sizing
- Trade idea considering market context based on larger time frame analysis
- Risk Management
- 1 allowed products, no rules under active experimentation
- GBPNZD
- 1 active opened positions
- 3 trades with 1% risk
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
- 1 allowed products, no rules under active experimentation
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